Looking Beyond Rhetoric, Data Show Efforts to Create a More Just Criminal Legal System are Working – Safely
By Emily West, Senior Research Associate
Building on an analysis last year that provided first-of-its-kind evidence that criminal legal reforms did not lead to upticks in violence in the wake of COVID-19 in Safety and Justice Challenge communities, an update following individuals through April 2023 reinforces the initial findings.
In the midst of a national election year, issues related to crime and punishment are already up front and center in the political discourse. While this is true every cycle, it’s especially true against the backdrop of recent national upticks in violent crime following the onset of COVID-19.
The pandemic had a complicated impact on criminal legal systems: many local jails around the country experienced substantial declines in jail population in 2020 as a result of emergency measures to combat the spread of the virus and temporary declines in criminal activity during the height of the pandemic shutdown. At the same time, national crime data from 2020 revealed an increase in violent crime—putting a spotlight on criminal legal reforms and whether they jeopardized public safety.
Claims suggesting that reductions in jail populations—and not the myriad economic and social effects of the pandemic—are to blame for the uptick in violent crime are based on anecdotal examples, not data. This holds true for the emergency measures as well as for criminal legal reforms that impact jail populations more generally: national crime data show that violence increased both in places that have enacted criminal legal reforms and in places where they have not. Another study found no detectable effect on rates of major crimes after reform-minded prosecutors were elected.
Claims suggesting that reductions in jail populations—and not the myriad economic and social effects of the pandemic—are to blame for the uptick in violent crime are based on anecdotal examples, not data.
The Data Collection Power of the Safety and Justice Challenge
Most studies examining this issue to date have relied on publicly available jail population and local crime data. And while examining these broad trends is important, there is only so much we can conclude by relying on these alone. These numbers don’t get at alleged criminal activity of specific individuals after they are released from jail custody and how much they may be contributing to increases in violent crime. But CUNY ISLG has data that gets beyond these limitations, allowing for a clearer look at what’s driving these trends.
CUNY ISLG researchers have collected a unique and comprehensive case-level data repository from 16 cities and counties around the country participating in the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation’s Safety and Justice Challenge (SJC), a nationwide initiative to safely reduce the overuse and misuse of jails. This first-of-its-kind trove of data has supported strategic reforms toward SJC’s goals, including implementing more just pretrial release decisions, developing arrest and prosecutorial deflections, and improving case processing time standards. Access to this detailed jail data provides an opportunity to dig deeper by specifically tracking the flow of individuals in and out of the jails, and whether they return to jail.
New Data Builds on Existing Evidence: Reforms Did Not Increase Local Crime
SJC cities and counties have seen substantial declines in jail populations over the past eight years (see Figure 1). This has been true since jurisdictions began implementing these strategies in 2016. And while the cumulative average daily population across SJC cities and counties has risen slightly since the peak of the pandemic—an expected natural correction as activity resumed—jail populations are still below 2020 levels. Importantly, even as jail populations declined, violent crime has remained stable or decreased slightly. It was not until 2020 that violent crime increased in some of these cities and counties, which may be better attributed to the complex socioeconomic impacts of the pandemic.
FIGURE 1: JAIL AVERAGE DAILY POPULATION TRENDS ACROSS SJC SITES, PRE-SJC TO 2023
Last year, CUNY ISLG released an analysis that provided the most direct evidence to date that criminal legal reforms did not lead to upticks in violence in the wake of COVID-19, using case-level jail data from 2015 through early 2021 in SJC cities and counties. Now, an updated brief follows individuals through April 2023.
These updated findings continue to suggest that cities and counties implementing thoughtful, data-driven criminal legal reforms can do so safely. Between 2015 (before reforms began) and 2022 (post peak pandemic), approximately three out of four individuals released on pretrial status did not return to jail within six months of being released (tracking jail booking data through April 2023).
Further, people released pretrial were very unlikely to return to jail charged with a violent crime (see Figure 2). This rate (2 percent of people released on pretrial) remained consistent over time, even as reforms were implemented and sustained and jail populations declined. This research finding is extremely important to counter the narrative that reforms are causing increases in violent crime. Communities are not seeing increases in rebooking rates for violent offenses. This also remains true for rebookings for homicides, specifically, with less than 0.001% percent of people released being rebooked on a homicide charge. The fact that these rebooking rates have remained constant before and after the pandemic began and before and after reforms were implemented demonstrates that while violence in some of these cities and counties rose in 2020, it was clearly not driven by people released from pretrial incarceration. Any violent crime should be taken seriously, but so should the value of safely releasing people to be with their families and communities as they await their trials.
Figure 2. Rebooking Outcomes of Individuals Released on Pretrial Status within Six Months (Average Across SJC Sites and Counties)
Taken together, these findings provide evidence that advancing equitable and thoughtful criminal legal reform is possible without compromising safety to the community. Rhetoric suggesting otherwise without sound evidence distracts from genuine attempts to understand the true causes of increases in violent crime, particularly homicide, and undermines the harms of incarceration on individuals, families, and communities.
Photo by leungchopan on Adobe Stock.