Amid an uncertain economy, human services lead job growth—but wages threaten the sector’s long-term strength. Data shows us the way forward.
By Carla Sinclair, Senior Communications Associate, Stephanie Rosoff, Associate Research Director, Alison Diéguez, Program Director, and Cecilia Low-Weiner, Senior Research Associate
Summer job reports show that human services and state and local government are among the fastest-hiring sectors. But many of these jobs lag behind in wage growth. Our analysis of New York State charts a path for policymakers and other leaders to create a pipeline of quality, sustainable public services.
From artificial intelligence to federal funding cuts to the lingering impacts of COVID-19, the US economy has felt unpredictable of late. The job market is a major driver of this uncertainty, with many left wondering how long their roles or careers may be viable. While a range of fields have been subject to this volatility, two have not only remained strong, but have surpassed all other non-farm industry growth: state and local governments and human services.
In a recent jobs report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the healthcare industry added 62,000 jobs in May 2025, keeping up a trend that has buoyed otherwise anemic job growth this year. This has been true when looking at individual states, as well—for instance, Oregon’s private health care and social assistance sector reached an all-time high in 2024. And it’s not a coincidence that these two sectors are leading the way.
In addition to state and local governments across the country hiring federal workers affected by Department of Governmental Efficiency (DOGE) cuts, agencies and policymakers are facing growing needs from the people they serve, many of which revolve around education and health care. Stemming from a combination of pandemic-era socioeconomic disruptions, long-simmering affordability crises, aging populations, and more, demand is increasing for human services. This includes everything from childcare to eldercare to anything in between: home healthcare, youth programming, substance use and mental health services, housing support. Increasingly, jurisdictions are relying on nonprofits and other community organizations to provide these services—New York City, for example, procured almost $10 billion in human services from nonprofits in 2023.
Stemming from a combination of pandemic-era socioeconomic disruptions, long-simmering affordability crises, aging populations, and more, demand is increasing for human services.
Earlier this year, CUNY ISLG researchers examined this booming intersection of government and human services in New York State. We found that the sector has nearly doubled since 2000, employing almost a million people as of 2023. This meant one out of every nine private sector employees (of which nonprofit staff fall under) works in human services. Within this industry, some roles stand out in how much they’ve grown, with employment in home health care services growing 406 percent, services for the elderly by 117 percent, and child day care services by 61 percent, compared with 14 percent for all private employment overall.
While we found the human services sector to be fastest growing, we also found it to be deeply underpaid. As the size of the industry has doubled, wages have remained stagnant, with only a 3 percent rise in average wages (adjusted for inflation) compared to a 12 percent increase in private employment overall. In fact, a role that has grown the fastest—home health care services—actually saw wages decline by 10 percent. The field overall, as well as some of its notably fast-growing industries—services for the elderly, for instance—saw only meager wage growth.
These wages fall far below the cost of living in New York State, especially in more expensive metropolitan areas. Looking across metrics, including the Federal Poverty Threshold, the Self Sufficiency Standard, and Living Wage Calculator, human services workers earned around $20,000 less than what is needed to afford housing, food, and healthcare. This means that those who provide the critical services New Yorkers rely on were likely to experience the same financial strains as those they cared for, as well as were likely to need and qualify for public assistance. This burden fell most heavily on women of color, often immigrants.
What does this all mean, taken together? Looking at the recent jobs reports that indicate steadily growing supply and demand for human services in cities and counties across the country, it’s clear the need is not subsiding. Even so, a large chunk of the money that funds the need for nursing assistants and home health aides comes from Medicaid and Medicare. As those funding sources decrease, it remains to be seen how this will affect the industry at large. Properly funding these services doesn’t only fairly pay the workers who underpin our communities. It helps create a pipeline of quality care by attracting and retaining skilled workers, which in turn strengthens the public services overall.
Properly funding these services doesn’t only fairly pay the workers who underpin our communities. It helps create a pipeline of quality care by attracting and retaining skilled workers, which in turn strengthens the public services overall.
Policymakers and nonprofit leaders must use data to confront these issues with efficiency, effectiveness, and equity. Forthcoming analyses from CUNY ISLG will provide deeper insight into how increasing wages for the human services workforce would impact individuals, their communities, and government—that is, comparing the cost of increasing wages against savings to government, and the benefits accrued to individuals and their communities because of higher incomes. Stay tuned.