Tracking Real-Life Cases, Data Shows Reforms Reduced Jail Populations without Spiking Crime
By Sana Khan, Senior Research Associate, CUNY ISLG; Diana Spahia, Senior Research Associate, CUNY ISLG; Amanda Cissner, Independent Research Consultant; and Fred Butcher, Senior Associate, Center for Justice Innovation
Studying real, case-level data from cities and counties reducing their jail populations has led researchers to a conclusion: pretrial reforms made through the Safety and Justice Challenge did not lead to rising rates of crime, violent or otherwise. Two new analyses show this trend on both a initiative-wide and county-specific level.
Crime is up. Crime is down. Spikes in violent crime during the peak of COVID-19 were because of reform. Crime rates are stabilizing because of recovery from COVID. Which is it?
Crime trends—especially in the peak- and post-COVID era—are hotly debated at the national level, and the conversation is flooded with data, numbers, and analyses of varying academic rigor. But at the end of the day, safety is something uniquely felt, addressed, and solved by local communities.
Cities, counties, and states of all sizes and political stripes have spent decades trying to develop solutions to crime. Since 2015, the MacArthur Foundation’s Safety and Justice Challenge (SJC) has used research, data, and input from government and community partners to develop these solutions, with the goal of safely reducing the unnecessary use of jail.
Being held in jail has extensively documented detrimental effects on people and their families, even when it’s only for a few days. Jail can mean a lost job, missed medical support, disruptions in housing, and emotional impacts on children. Awaiting trial in the community, when appropriate, helps folks avoid this while also making them less likely to return to jail in the future.
This can look like diversion programs run by community-based organizations; employment and mental health services offered to people in the community during their trial; evaluating prosecutorial priorities; and many other strategies. SJC cities and counties have worked alongside researchers, advocates, and criminal legal stakeholders to develop tailored strategies to reduce jail populations, which have resulted in an 18 percent decrease in the number of people in jail across the dozens of participating jurisdictions.
SJC cities and counties have worked alongside researchers, advocates, and criminal legal stakeholders to develop tailored strategies to reduce jail populations, which have resulted in an 18 percent decrease in the number of people in jail across the dozens of participating jurisdictions.
However, many are (rightly) concerned about how these reforms impact community safety. That is why, as the lead data and analytic partner of the SJC, the Institute for State & Local Governance at the City University of New York (CUNY ISLG) has worked with sites since the start to collect, manage, and analyze an unprecedented amount of case-level jail data, including on rebookings.
Using this data, CUNY ISLG has conducted regular analyses on whether people released to the community during their trial instead of being held in jail were rebooked for an offense. These analyses consistently find that vast majority of people released pretrial—whether before, during, or after the peak of COVID-19—were not rebooked for a crime, violent or otherwise. This means there is no apparent correlation between declines in jail incarceration and increases in violent crime through COVID-19. In addition to this initiative-wide view, research partners, such as the Center for Justice Innovation (CJI), have looked at specific jurisdictions to assess the impact of their unique strategies, providing a look at the effectiveness and safety of these reforms that sees both the forest and the trees.
Trends Across SJC Cities and Counties
The latest analysis of SJC sites’ rebooking rates, released in March 2026, tracks data from seven cohorts of people released pretrial back to the community from March to October of 2015 and 2017-2024. Each person released in each cohort was tracked for six months to see whether or not they were rebooked, and if they were, for what.
More than 80 percent were either not rebooked into jail at all (75 percent) or were returned to jail for administrative reasons (8 percent)—i.e., not for committing a violent crime. Only about 2 percent of individuals released pretrial returned with a new violent crime charge.
Critically, this rate is consistent from before reform efforts were implemented, as well as before, during, and after the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Meaning the people released on these reforms were not causing upticks in violent crime.
Looking Deeper into New Orleans, Louisiana, and Lucas County, Ohio
Researchers from CJI, a member of the SJC Research Consortium, looked at New Orleans, Louisiana, and Lucas County, Ohio, to assess the impact of the sites’ tailored strategies to reduce jail populations. These strategies included implementing a validated risk assessment (the Public Safety Assessment or PSA), diversion programs, pretrial detention alternatives, and expanded treatment options.
CJI researchers examined whether implementation of the PSA and other strategies managed to reduce jail populations without sacrificing community safety. Key findings included:
Incarceration can be avoided without negatively impacting public safety. The research found that implementation of the SJC strategies was followed by declining jail populations without an increase in crime.
In fact, recidivism generally decreased following the implementation of SJC strategies in both sites, including felony and violent recidivism.
Less time in jail means greater public safety. Shorter jail stays were associated with lower recidivism risk. By limiting the time individuals spend in jail, it may be possible for sites to reduce recidivism.
Racial disparities in jail bookings persisted. While booking trends declined among both white and BIPOC individuals throughout the study period, bookings were twice as likely to involve BIPOC individuals as white individuals in both sites.
Read the The Impact of Jail Reduction Strategies on Community Safety.
about the Safety and Justice Challenge
In 2015, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation (Foundation) launched the Safety + Justice Challenge (SJC), a multi-year initiative to reduce jail populations and racial and ethnic disparities in jails. To date, the SJC has provided $252 million to help jurisdictions use innovative, collaborative, and evidence-based strategies to create fairer, more effective justice systems.
The sites are in diverse geographic regions and operate jails that range from 140 to 20,000 beds. Jurisdictions receive funding from the Foundation and support from a network of national experts and technical assistance providers to implement comprehensive, system-wide criminal legal reforms toward reducing the use of jail incarceration and its disproportionate impacts on communities of color. To track the progress of reforms in the SJC jurisdictions, the Foundation engaged the Institute for State & Local Governance (ISLG) at the City University of New York (CUNY).
Photo by Yan on Adobe Stock.